Pre E3 Analysis of The Console War
Wii's unstoppable momentum, the PS3's hidden casual gamer install base, and the X360's last hope, the Newton?
I will start off by saying that the winner of the console war this generation is going to be Nintendo Wii; if anyone disagrees they are just in total denial. The Wii has become a pop culture worldwide. In terms of sales number I cannot see Sony or MSFT making a dent on Wii’s unstoppable momentum. Wii continues to bring out dozens of shovelwares and it is fine, because that’s what the casuals ask for..minigames.
However, Sony while still in 3rd has got one very strong weapon in its arsenal, and that’s the forgotten
BluRay player. The penetration rate of HDTV in the US is about 30% according to AVS survey and the install base of the PS3 should grow along side with the install base as people upgrade their multimedia players. Kaz Hirai, the current boss of SCE said that he will be focusing the Sony platform on gaming because the message earlier was ‘confusing’ to the developers. In order to turn movie watchers into gamers, Sony needs a
BluRay package that comes with either pre-loaded arcade style games (such as Sudoku, Pixel Junk Monster, ect) or a light hearted
BluRay containing these games to get the movie casuals hooked on gaming. Sony has one more weapon that may help them attract the casuals, and that is the much talked about Little Big Planet. If marketed correctly, LBP itself can become a pop culture in the coming years, but probably will not reach the mass appeal of Wii Fit but it is still a strong force to be reckoned with.
Now onto MSFT, ok everyone is thinking about Fable, Gears of War, and XBL. MSFT has done a terrific job in the last few years to attract hardcore gamers, but they have yet to expand outside of the original Xbox crowd. MSFT said they are making money this generation which means there will be an
Xbox720. Today the new FW2.4 for the PS3 was released and the XBL advantage is all of a sudden…just not there. MSFT needs to act fast and hard if they want to remain competitive for the next few years.
After all, these are pre-E3 analysis. Depending on what is announced during E3 things can rapidly change. Such as the new MSFT Newton, or the rumored PS3 break-away controller or even another new Wii gadget to keep the ‘Wii culture” going.
